Hurricane Predictions for 2009

Please note that predictions are just that – predictions. While utmost care will be taken to provide accurate and up to date information, there is no way I could forecast the occurrence of a hurricane in any given day, week or month of the 2009 with 100% accuracy. If you are visiting Cuba or elsewhere in the Caribbean anytime between June 1st and November 30th, chances of encountering a hurricane exist. Nobody can guarantee you that you will have an entirely hurricane free vacation. But it can easily be hurricane free. These freaks of natures are not under control of men and this page will strictly focus on providing information collected from reliable sources to help you determine your chances of having a hurricane during your trip. If you want to be 100% safe, reschedule your trip so it takes place anytime between December 1st and May 30th. Hurricanes can form quickly and strike the area within days.

Hurricanes Names

When a storm is bad enough or reaches the magnitude of a hurricane, it is given a name. Names for the hurricanes for each particular year are predetermined up front by the World Meteorological Organization. There are six lists of names each used once every six years and each contains names starting with one letter of the alphabet. So first storm that is named in that given year would be given a name from current list starting with letter A, second storm would get a name starting with letter B, and so on. Sometimes a name is removed from a list and is never used again – this happens when a hurricane is remarkably destructive. For example Hurricane Katrina from 2005 was so devastating that no other hurricane will be given that name. Six years from 2005, when the list which formerly contained name Katrina is used for naming the hurricanes again, there will be no Katrina on it. Instead Katrina has been replaced with a new name starting with letter K – Katia.

Hurricanes 2008 Recapitulation

2008 was a bad year for the hurricanes. 16 named tropical storms formed in the Atlantic and another 16 in the Eastern Pacific. Tropical Storm Arthur started off the hurricane season on May 30 and claimed lives of 5 people. Belize suffered damages exceeding $78 million as result of this tropical storm. Hurricane Paloma then closed the hurricane season by being the last named hurricane of 2008. When Paloma reached Cuba, it was a Category 4 Hurricane, making it the second most destructive hurricane ever recorded in November.

2008 also holds the record for the longest lived tropical storm in the Atlantic ever – Hurricane Bertha. Four of the hurricanes that struck in 2008 were deadly enough to have their names retired – Alma, Gustav (hit US state Louisiana, killed 112 people, most of them in Haiti), Ike (most devastating hurricane of 2008), and Paloma (devastated Cuba in November).

Hurricane Outlooks for 2009

National Hurricane Centre predicts that 2009 will see more “normal” summer as far as hurricanes are involved. Predicted numbers of tropical storms which will be given names in 2009 is lower than what we have seen in past 5 years. Good news is that there hasn’t been any major tropical storm related disaster in 2009 so far but August and September, two months when hurricane activity reaches its peak are yet to come.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States Department of Commerce predicts that in 2009 there is a 70% chance of the following:

• Named Storms: 9-14
• Hurricanes: 4-7
• Major Hurricanes: 1-3

Colorado State University narrowed down these predictions to specific numbers, rather than ranges of numbers and predicts that 2009 will experience the following:

• Named Storms: 12
• Hurricanes: 6
• Major Hurricanes: 2

So far there has been only one named storm in 2009. Usually by this time of year there would be at least three named storms. Hurricane Andres formed in Eastern Pacific (on the western shores of Mexico, hence far away from Cuba or any other Caribbean country) on June 21, 2009 and dissipated on June 24, 2009 by which time the winds reached speed of 75 mph. One person died as result of Hurricane Andres – Mexican fisherman from Tecpán de Galeana, in southern Mexican state of Guerrero drowned after he was engulfed by waves.

All in all, 2009 hurricane season is off to a very slow start. Especially in the Caribbean so all visitors to Cuba have been safe from hurricanes so far. Hopefully this will not mean that the hurricanes which are yet to come will make up for it. Rather let’s hope the rest of 2009 continues in the safe fashion as the beginning of hurricane season so we can all enjoy our vacations without mayhem.

Latest Hurricane Update: July 23, 2009

There is currently no hurricane watch and no warnings. The area of the Atlantic north and north-east of the Bahamas is currently engulfed in disorganized cloudiness with thunderstorms. There is a very small chance – less than 30% of this system becoming a tropical or subtropical storm. There are no signs of a surface circulation and conditions are likely to make developments of this disturbance less favorable.

Hurricane Watch and Warnings for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico as of July 23, 2009:
There are no tropical cyclones in this area at this time.

Hurricane Watch and Warnings for the Eastern Pacific Ocean as of July 23, 2009:
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

Latest Hurricane Update: July 24, 2009

There was only a very, very small chance of that mini disturbance north of the Bahamas developing into something more serious, but likelihood of it going away within 24 hours seemed far more likely. It’s now 24 hours later and the cloudiness dissipated leaving entire area completely free of any chance of developing into a cyclone. The prediction for following 48 hours? No tropical cyclone activity is expected.

Both Atlantic and Eastern Pacific are free from any formations that have a chance of developing into a tropical storm. Everyone who’s vacationing in the Caribbean right now is enjoying beautiful weather. There are some clouds over Cuba, but Dominican Republic has cloudless sky and so does most of the rest of the Caribbean. Western shores of Central America are experiencing beautiful weather as well with occasional clouds shielding the summer sun, but otherwise nice and hot all over the place. There are no indications of any storm activity within next 48 hours anywhere in the region. Enjoy beautiful weather if you’re on a vacation right now.

Latest Hurricane Update: July 25, 2009

I can’t believe I’m in Canada writing this. Entire Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic as well as Eastern Pacific are cloudless with beautiful sunny weather and absolutely no signs of cyclone activity forming in next 48 hours (remember, you can’t predict hurricane activity for more than 48 hours in advance. A Hurricane could form within 48 hours from nothing, hence predictions further ahead of a 48 hour period are just guesses). All of you who are in the Caribbean are having time of their life while I’m stuck here in (albeit also hot and sunny) Canada. Beautiful weather in Cuba as well as the clouds cleared up leaving clear, sunny skies above everyone’s heads. Great timing on your part if your vacation is taking place in the Caribbean right now. Enjoy the best weather ever.

Latest Hurricane Update: July 26, 2009

Gorgeous weather in the Caribbean continues. It’s sunny all over the place with no clouds obstructing the sun on most islands. Cuba is entirely cloudless, so are Dominican Republic, Haiti, Most islands of the Bahamas have clear skies with only a couple in north west having clouds (Grand Bahamas, Nassau, Andros, Little Abaco, Great Abaco), Jamaica has clear, sunny skies, Turks and Caicos have clear skies, Puerto Rico completely clear, US Virgin Islands and British Virgin Islands have clear skies, the following small islands are all cloudless: Cayman Islands, Anguilla, Yieques and Culebra, St. Martin, St. Bart’s, Barbuda, Antigua, Saba, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserat, Guadeloupe, Marie Galante, Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Bequia, Barbados, Aruba, Curacao, Bonaire, Tortuga, Blanquilla and Margarita. There are a few scattered clouds on following islands in the south eastern corner of the Caribbean: Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago.

The weather is awesomely tropical with no signs of any disturbances. Tropical cyclones are NOT expected anywhere in the area in next 48 hours (includes both Atlantic and Eastern Pacific sides of Central America). This is perfect holiday weather and it will stay this way for at least following few days. I will provide latest update when it changes. Enjoy beautiful weather if you’re in the Caribbean.

Latest Hurricane Update: July 29, 2009

All countries in the Caribbean continue to experience beautiful weather with predominantly clear skies at any given time of day. No weather disturbances, no signs of any cyclones or hurricanes and none are expected to form in the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific had two stormy areas one at the south-western corner of Mexian Baja Peninsula and one about 1000 km from the shore further into the Pacific Ocean. These was a very small chance (less than 30%) of these forming into a tropical cyclone but conditions were more favorable towards dissipation which is exactly what occurred a few hours later. At present time these disturbances diminished so the area is considered clear with no tropical cyclones expected in the next 48 hours. Weather in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and The North Atlantic is much nicer than in Eastern Pacific. All people vacationing on the Caribbean islands are for the win. West Coast of Mexico, not so much. Both sides free from hurricanes with no warnings and predictions that it’ll stay that way for a minimum of the following two days.

Latest Hurricane Update: July 31, 2009 – Tropical Storm LANA

Tropical Storm Lana Public Advisory #5 has been issued for the Central Pacific. Lana has formed south of Hawaii after thunderstorms that formed 1,045 miles south east of Hilo strengthened and reached sustained winds of 40 mph. Lana is currently moving westwards and will probably miss Hawaii, even though some areas on the south may experience heavy rain.

Caribbean as well as Eastern Pacific remain free from warnings. Beautiful weather continues and no tropical cyclones are expected in the next 48 hours.

Latest Hurricane Update: August 03, 2009 – Tropical Storm ENRIQUE

Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory #2 has been issued for the Eastern Pacific. Enrique has formed west of Mexico to become the fifth named storm of the 2009 hurricane season in the area. Tropical Storm Enrique is currently about 715 miles south-west of the Baja California peninsula and is moving away from the land at speed of 14 miles per hour so it may not affect inhabited areas. The tropical storm reached sustained winds of 40 miles per hour which qualified Enrique to obtain this name.

A little further into the sea, about 1,135 miles south-west of Mexico’s Baja California, another depression has formed earlier today. It is only known as Tropical Depression Eight-E and has sustained winds of 35 miles per hour. It is expected to strengthen in which case it will be upgraded to a Tropical Storm and will be given the name.

Entire Caribbean is free from hurricanes, cyclones or tropical storms. Beautiful weather continues and no cyclone formation is expected in the next 48 hours. It’s just plain fabulous in the Caribbean right now.

Latest Hurricane Update: August 07, 2009 – Hurricane FELICIA

Tropical Storm Enrique that formed several hundred miles off the western coast of Mexico weakened and dissipated. It is no longer classified as tropical storm and there are no more warnings or advisories regarding Enrique. It formed far away from land and only moved within the Pacific Ocean, hence no material damages or life loses.

In the meantime, a Hurricane formed 1200 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Named Hurricane Felicia, during its peak reached sustained winds of over 139 miles per hour. Ravaging hurricane, but luckily for people of Hawaii it stayed in the ocean and weakened. The winds of Hurricane Felicia are currently reaching sustained speed of 100 miles per hour and are expected to further weaken. National Hurricane Centre forecasts that Hurricane Felicia will be downgraded to Tropical Storm within 24 to 48 hours. Given its itinerary, speed and direction, it is expected that Felicia will reach Big Island of Hawaii and will affect the area on Monday and Tuesday next week. By that time it will be further downgraded to a Tropical Depression. As it turns out, Big Island is experiencing severe drought so they are actually looking forward to some rain. Vacationers currently in Hawaii may not be as impressed, though.

As for the Caribbean – Cuba and other islands of this part of the Atlantic, including Gulf of Mexico remain Hurricane free. No signs of any hurricanes and none are expected in next 48 hours. So far it’s been perfect summer in Cuba and it will remain so for at least next few days. Gorgeous weather, lots of sun, only occasional cloud that clears up quickly – what a beautiful summer. Keep enjoying it. No tropical cyclones are expected in the next 48 hours.

Latest Hurricane Update: August 07, 2009 – Hurricane Bill, Hurricane Ana, Hurricane Claudette

2009 hurricane season was off to a very, very slow start but it was only a question of time before first hurricane hits the shores of Caribbean islands. August and September are the worst months for hurricanes and given that we’re in the middle of August, one good hurricane is overdue. And here they come. Tropical Depression Ana is just south east of the Dominican Republic and is moving north west – towards Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, The Bahamas and other small islands in that area. The winds of Ana currently reach sustained speed of 30 mph.

Hurricane Bill is currently far away from the land – just between the Caribbean Sea and African continent. Bill is heading west towards the Caribbean and has winds with sustained speed of 90 mph.

Tropical Depression Claudette has reached the US mainland and is weakening. Final advisory has been issued, floods are expected.

In order to provide better and more organized hurricane updates, I have started a website that will be entirely dedicated to hurricane predictions and warnings. It will contain more information on each weather disturbance and each will have its page for better navigability and searchability. Please go to Caribbean Hurricane Belo [dot] com for latest hurricane news. I will be updating that site, instead of this page so Cuba Tourism website can remain about Cuba. Thank you for your understanding

Mark

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